Allsvenskan · 2026
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Hammarby (55) from Sirius (55) with 3 matchweeks left. The model gives Hammarby 36%.
What is being decided1 · 2 points between Degerfors and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Västerås SK are 6th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Västerås SK are 6th in their first season up
44 points from 27 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position6thPoints44Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Västerås SK are 11.1 points ahead of their xG
44 points from an expected 32.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points44Expected32.9xG for34.7Underperforming
Kalmar FF are 17.1 points short of their xG
22 points from an expected 39.1. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points22Expected39.1xG for34.9Form
Hammarby have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 55 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition1stForm
Häcken have won 4 of their last 5
4th on 49 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W D WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Sirius v Djurgården
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Sirius v Djurgården
2nd against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SIR34%Draw28%DJU39%Key fixture
Hammarby v Elfsborg
1st against 5th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
HAM48%Draw29%ELF24%Key fixture
IFK Göteborg v Sirius
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
IFK27%Draw25%SIR48%
The people who decide it3 · Axel Kouame
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Axel Kouame
2 goals and 2 assists for AIK, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 213 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.3Player
Mikkel Rygaard
2 goals and 1 assist for Häcken, 1.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 213 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.1Player
Bo Åsulv Hegland
2 goals and 2 assists for Djurgården, 1.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 213 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.1
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.