Allsvenskan · 2026
Ask a questionSurvival
Level on the relegation line
Degerfors sit 14th on 19, with Kalmar FF the first side above the line on 19. The model puts Degerfors down 56% of the time.
What is being decided1 · Sirius lead by 7
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Västerås SK are 8th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Västerås SK are 8th in their first season up
32 points from 21 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position8thPoints32Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Västerås SK are 8.2 points ahead of their xG
32 points from an expected 23.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points32Expected23.8xG for26.8Underperforming
Kalmar FF are 12.2 points short of their xG
19 points from an expected 31.2. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points19Expected31.2xG for26.8Form
Djurgården have won 5 of their last 5
2nd on 41 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition2ndForm
Kalmar FF have lost 4 of their last 5
13th on 19, and falling.
FormL D L L LPosition13th
Games that move the table3 · Mjällby v Degerfors
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Mjällby v Degerfors
12th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MJL36%Draw29%DEG34%Key fixture
Degerfors v Kalmar FF
14th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
DEG32%Draw32%KAL36%Key fixture
Sirius v Elfsborg
1st against 4th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SIR47%Draw28%ELF25%
The people who decide it3 · Kristian Lien
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Kristian Lien
4 goals and 1 assist for Djurgården, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 168 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 901.6Player
Sam Larsson
3 goals and 1 assist for IFK Göteborg, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 168 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.4Player
Victor Lind
1 goal and 3 assists for Hammarby, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 168 matches.
Goals1Assists3Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.