Super League 1 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
Panathinaikos (12) from PAOK Thessaloniki (9) with 22 matchweeks left. The model gives Panathinaikos 53%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Kalamata and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Kalamata and safety
Kalamata sit 9th on 4, with Iraklis the first side above the line on 5. The model puts Kalamata down 51% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left22Relegation risk51%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Iraklis hold 8th on 5; Kalamata are 9th on 4.
Iraklis5Kalamata4Games left22
Running hot, and living on luck2 · OFI Crete are 4.2 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
OFI Crete are 4.2 points ahead of their xG
9 points from an expected 4.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points9Expected4.8xG for4.4Form
Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 4
1st on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W WPosition1st
Games that move the table3 · Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata
13th against 9th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AST37%Draw27%KAL36%Key fixture
Aris Thessaloniki v Iraklis
7th against 8th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ARI39%Draw26%IRA35%Key fixture
Aris Thessaloniki v Atromitos
7th against 10th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ARI37%Draw27%ATR36%
The people who decide it3 · Vicente Taborda
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Vicente Taborda
3 goals and 1 assist for Panathinaikos, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 28 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.4Player
Barnabás Varga
3 goals and 0 assists for AEK Athens, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 28 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.4Player
Dimitrios Pelkas
2 goals and 0 assists for PAOK Thessaloniki, 1.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 28 matches.
Goals2Assists0Per 901.0
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.