Super League 1 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 2 points in it
Panathinaikos (24) from Olympiacos (22) with 17 matchweeks left. The model gives Panathinaikos 63%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Iraklis and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Iraklis and safety
Iraklis sit 9th on 9, with Kalamata the first side above the line on 10. The model puts Iraklis down 67% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left17Relegation risk67%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Kalamata hold 8th on 10; Iraklis are 9th on 9.
Kalamata10Iraklis9Games left17
Running hot, and living on luck4 · OFI Crete are 5.0 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
OFI Crete are 5.0 points ahead of their xG
16 points from an expected 11.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points16Expected11.0xG for10.8Underperforming
NFC Volos are 6.0 points short of their xG
0 points from an expected 6.0. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points0Expected6.0xG for6.8Form
Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 24 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW L W W WPosition1stForm
Olympiacos have won 5 of their last 5
2nd on 22 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Kalamata v Levadiakos
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Kalamata v Levadiakos
8th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KAL36%Draw29%LEV35%Key fixture
Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata
12th against 8th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AST33%Draw26%KAL41%Key fixture
Iraklis v Aris Thessaloniki
9th against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
IRA37%Draw29%ARI34%
The people who decide it3 · Jota Silva
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Jota Silva
3 goals and 1 assist for Olympiacos, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 18 of 60 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 902.0Player
Dawid Kurminowski
4 goals and 0 assists for Kalamata, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 18 of 60 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.7Player
Carles Soria
0 goals and 3 assists for Iraklis, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 18 of 60 matches.
Goals0Assists3Per 901.7
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.