Swiss Super League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
2 points between Basel and safety
Basel sit 7th on 14, with Servette the first side above the line on 16. The model puts Basel down 69% of the time.
What is being decided1 · A 9-point cushion at the top
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Lugano are 13.2 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Lugano are 13.2 points ahead of their xG
34 points from an expected 20.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points34Expected20.8xG for21.1Underperforming
FC Vaduz are 5.6 points short of their xG
10 points from an expected 15.6. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points10Expected15.6xG for22.1Form
Lugano have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 34 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
FC Zürich have won 4 of their last 5
4th on 20 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW D W W WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Basel v Servette
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Basel v Servette
7th against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BAS33%Draw34%SER33%Key fixture
Luzern v Servette
8th against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LUZ31%Draw29%SER40%Key fixture
Grasshopper v Basel
11th against 7th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GRA38%Draw31%BAS31%
The people who decide it3 · Brighton Labeau
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Brighton Labeau
2 goals and 1 assist for Thun, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 12 of 72 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.6Player
Samuel Essende
3 goals and 0 assists for Young Boys, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 12 of 72 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.5Player
Daniel Dos Santos
1 goal and 1 assist for Lugano, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 12 of 72 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.