Premier League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Arsenal (12) from Manchester City (12) with 34 matchweeks left. The model gives Arsenal 63%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Fulham and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Fulham and safety
Fulham sit 18th on 1, with Tottenham Hotspur the first side above the line on 2. The model puts Fulham down 28% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left34Relegation risk28%Projection
Brighton and Chelsea are level on the European cut
Brighton & Hove Albion hold 5th on 7; Chelsea are 6th on 7.
Brighton7Chelsea7Games left34
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Hull City are 4th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Hull City are 4th in their first season up
8 points from 4 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 18%.
Position4thPoints8Relegation risk18%Overperforming
Hull City are 4.2 points ahead of their xG
8 points from an expected 3.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points8Expected3.8xG for3.7Form
Arsenal have won 4 of their last 4
1st on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W WPosition1stForm
Manchester City have won 4 of their last 4
2nd on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Tottenham v Aston Villa
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Tottenham v Aston Villa
17th against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
TOT37%Draw31%AVL32%Key fixture
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
16th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CRY38%Draw26%NEW36%Key fixture
Ipswich v Nottm Forest
10th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
IPS33%Draw26%NFO41%
The people who decide it3 · Bruno Fernandes
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Bruno Fernandes
3 goals and 1 assist for Man United, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 40 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 902.0Player
Erling Haaland
3 goals and 0 assists for Man City, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 40 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.5Player
Cody Gakpo
0 goals and 3 assists for Liverpool, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 40 matches.
Goals0Assists3Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.