Premier League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Arsenal (24) from Manchester City (21) with 29 matchweeks left. The model gives Arsenal 61%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
Crystal Palace sit 18th on 7, with Manchester United the first side above the line on 7. The model puts Crystal Palace down 56% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left29Relegation risk56%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Liverpool hold 5th on 15; Brentford are 6th on 14.
Liverpool15Brentford14Games left29
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Hull City are 10th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Hull City are 10th in their first season up
11 points from 9 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 30%.
Position10thPoints11Relegation risk30%Overperforming
Arsenal are 6.0 points ahead of their xG
24 points from an expected 18.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points24Expected18.0xG for14.9Underperforming
Nottingham Forest are 10.1 points short of their xG
6 points from an expected 16.1. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points6Expected16.1xG for14.6Form
Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 24 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition1stForm
Brighton & Hove Albion have won 4 of their last 5
3rd on 19 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition3rd
Games that move the table3 · Coventry v Crystal Palace
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Coventry v Crystal Palace
16th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
COV40%Draw28%CRY32%Key fixture
Coventry v Ipswich
16th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
COV41%Draw27%IPS32%Key fixture
Everton v Coventry
14th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
EVE43%Draw30%COV28%
The people who decide it3 · Evanilson
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Evanilson
2 goals and 1 assist for Bournemouth, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 89 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.6Player
Marcus Tavernier
2 goals and 0 assists for Bournemouth, 1.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 89 matches.
Goals2Assists0Per 901.1Player
Nicolas Jackson
3 goals and 0 assists for Aston Villa, 1.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 89 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.0
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.