Süper Lig · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Galatasaray (13) from Beşiktaş (12) with 29 matchweeks left. The model gives Galatasaray 59%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Konyaspor and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Konyaspor and safety
Konyaspor sit 16th on 3, with Erzurumspor FK the first side above the line on 4. The model puts Konyaspor down 24% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left29Relegation risk24%Projection
Kasımpaşa and Kocaelispor are level on the European cut
Kasımpaşa hold 4th on 9; Kocaelispor are 5th on 9.
Kasımpaşa9Kocaelispor9Games left29
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Amed Sportif are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Amed Sportif are 3rd in their first season up
10 points from 5 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 1%.
Position3rdPoints10Relegation risk1%Underperforming
Göztepe are 4.2 points short of their xG
2 points from an expected 6.2. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points2Expected6.2xG for9.3Form
Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 13 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Beşiktaş have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW L W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor
15th against 17th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ERZ38%Draw30%EYP33%Key fixture
Konyaspor v Gençlerbirliği
16th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KON50%Draw27%GEN23%Key fixture
Başakşehir v Gençlerbirliği
13th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BAA53%Draw24%GEN23%
The people who decide it3 · Gift Orban
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Gift Orban
6 goals and 0 assists for Amed Sportif, 3.3 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.0. Over the last 27 of 45 matches.
Goals6Assists0Per 903.3Player
Dušan Vlahović
4 goals and 0 assists for Beşiktaş, 2.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 45 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 902.3Player
Victor Osimhen
2 goals and 1 assist for Galatasaray, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 45 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 902.2
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.