Süper Lig · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Galatasaray (25) from Amed Sportif (23) with 24 matchweeks left. The model gives Galatasaray 77%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
Gençlerbirliği sit 16th on 8, with Gaziantep FK the first side above the line on 8. The model puts Gençlerbirliği down 32% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left24Relegation risk32%Projection
2 points decides the last European place
Beşiktaş hold 4th on 19; Kasımpaşa are 5th on 17.
Beşiktaş19Kasımpaşa17Games left24
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Amed Sportif are 2nd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Amed Sportif are 2nd in their first season up
23 points from 10 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position2ndPoints23Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Trabzonspor are 5.2 points ahead of their xG
22 points from an expected 16.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points22Expected16.8xG for19.1Underperforming
Samsunspor are 4.9 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 8.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected8.9xG for11.7Form
Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 25 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition1stForm
Amed Sportif have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 23 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW D W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Gençlerbirliği v Gaziantep FK
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Gençlerbirliği v Gaziantep FK
16th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GEN37%Draw28%GAZ35%Key fixture
Samsunspor v Gençlerbirliği
17th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SAM42%Draw26%GEN32%Key fixture
Samsunspor v Konyaspor
17th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SAM39%Draw27%KON35%
The people who decide it3 · Ernest Muçi
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Ernest Muçi
1 goal and 4 assists for Trabzonspor, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 89 matches.
Goals1Assists4Per 901.8Player
André
4 goals and 0 assists for Göztepe, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 89 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.5Player
Franculino
2 goals and 1 assist for Trabzonspor, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 89 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.