LaLiga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
Barcelona (18) from Real Madrid (15) with 32 matchweeks left. The model gives Barcelona 48%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Málaga and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Málaga and safety
Málaga sit 18th on 3, with Valencia the first side above the line on 4. The model puts Málaga down 58% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left32Relegation risk58%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Deportivo Alavés hold 6th on 10; Deportivo A Coruña are 7th on 9.
Deportivo Alavés10Deportivo A Coruña9Games left32
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Deportivo A Coruña are 7th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Deportivo A Coruña are 7th in their first season up
9 points from 6 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 13%.
Position7thPoints9Relegation risk13%Overperforming
Real Betis are 6.9 points ahead of their xG
15 points from an expected 8.1. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points15Expected8.1xG for10.1Underperforming
Villarreal are 7.7 points short of their xG
2 points from an expected 9.7. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points2Expected9.7xG for10.2Form
Barcelona have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 18 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 15 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W L W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Elche v Celta Vigo
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Elche v Celta Vigo
20th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ELC33%Draw29%CEL39%Key fixture
Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid
4th against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ATM32%Draw26%RMA43%Key fixture
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
15th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GET32%Draw33%RAY35%
The people who decide it3 · Yassir Zabiri
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Yassir Zabiri
6 goals and 0 assists for Racing Santander, 3.1 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.5. Over the last 32 of 59 matches.
Goals6Assists0Per 903.1Player
Lamine Yamal
7 goals and 2 assists for Barcelona, 2.4 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.3. Over the last 32 of 59 matches.
Goals7Assists2Per 902.4Player
Raphinha
6 goals and 2 assists for Barcelona, 2.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 32 of 59 matches.
Goals6Assists2Per 902.1
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.