LaLiga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 2 points in it
Barcelona (30) from Atlético Madrid (28) with 27 matchweeks left. The model gives Barcelona 52%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
Levante sit 18th on 10, with Elche the first side above the line on 10. The model puts Levante down 20% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left27Relegation risk20%Projection
2 points decides the last European place
Sevilla hold 6th on 17; Athletic Club are 7th on 15.
Sevilla17Athletic Club15Games left27
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Atlético Madrid are 9.0 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Atlético Madrid are 9.0 points ahead of their xG
28 points from an expected 19.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points28Expected19.0xG for17.7Underperforming
Villarreal are 8.5 points short of their xG
12 points from an expected 20.5. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points12Expected20.5xG for21.9Form
Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 30 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition1stForm
Atlético Madrid have won 5 of their last 5
2nd on 28 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
2nd against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ATM30%Draw25%BAR44%Key fixture
Espanyol v Deportivo A Coruña
14th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ESP33%Draw32%DEO36%Key fixture
Athletic Club v Real Madrid
7th against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ATH23%Draw26%RMA52%
The people who decide it3 · Raphinha
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Raphinha
3 goals and 0 assists for Barcelona, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 108 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.8Player
Kylian Mbappé
5 goals and 0 assists for Real Madrid, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 108 matches.
Goals5Assists0Per 901.7Player
Alex Berenguer
2 goals and 3 assists for Athletic Club, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 108 matches.
Goals2Assists3Per 901.7
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.