Saudi Pro League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Al Hilal (18) from Al Ittihad (17) with 27 matchweeks left. The model gives Al Hilal 63%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Al Diriyah are 8th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Al Diriyah are 8th in their first season up
11 points from 7 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 1%.
Position8thPoints11Relegation risk1%Overperforming
Al Ittihad are 4.7 points ahead of their xG
17 points from an expected 12.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points17Expected12.3xG for14.2Underperforming
Al-Taawoun are 5.8 points short of their xG
3 points from an expected 8.8. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points3Expected8.8xG for9.8Form
Al Hilal have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 18 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition1stForm
Al Ittihad have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 17 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW D W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Abha v Al-Faisaly
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Abha v Al-Faisaly
18th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ABH41%Draw30%ALY29%Key fixture
Al Qadsiah v Al Hilal
4th against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ALQ34%Draw26%ALH41%Key fixture
Al Fateh FC v Al Shabab
15th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ALT42%Draw27%ALS32%
The people who decide it3 · Ollie Watkins
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Ollie Watkins
2 goals and 2 assists for Al Hilal, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 33 of 63 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 902.0Player
Ivan Toney
7 goals and 1 assist for Al Ahli, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 33 of 63 matches.
Goals7Assists1Per 902.0Player
George Ilenikhena
3 goals and 2 assists for Al Ittihad, 1.9 involvements per 90. Over the last 33 of 63 matches.
Goals3Assists2Per 901.9
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.