Saudi Pro League · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Al Hilal (30) from Al Qadsiah (28) with 22 matchweeks left. The model gives Al Hilal 86%.
What is being decided2 · 4 points between Al Fateh FC and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
4 points between Al Fateh FC and safety
Al Fateh FC sit 16th on 6, with Al-Faisaly the first side above the line on 10. The model puts Al Fateh FC down 62% of the time.
Gap to safety4Games left22Relegation risk62%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Neom SC hold 5th on 22; Al Ahli are 6th on 21.
Neom SC22Al Ahli21Games left22
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Al Diriyah are 8th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Al Diriyah are 8th in their first season up
15 points from 12 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 4%.
Position8thPoints15Relegation risk4%Overperforming
Al Ittihad are 4.4 points ahead of their xG
24 points from an expected 19.6. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points24Expected19.6xG for22.3Underperforming
Al-Taawoun are 6.4 points short of their xG
5 points from an expected 11.4. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points5Expected11.4xG for13.8Form
Al Hilal have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 30 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Al Qadsiah have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 28 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Al-Taawoun v Al-Faisaly
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Al-Taawoun v Al-Faisaly
17th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ALW39%Draw29%ALL32%Key fixture
Abha v Al Fateh FC
18th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ABH41%Draw29%ALT30%Key fixture
Al-Taawoun v Abha
17th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ALW42%Draw31%ABH27%
The people who decide it3 · Joao Félix
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Joao Félix
0 goals and 4 assists for Al Nassr FC, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 104 matches.
Goals0Assists4Per 902.0Player
Tijjani Reijnders
4 goals and 3 assists for Al Qadsiah, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 104 matches.
Goals4Assists3Per 901.8Player
Sadio Mané
1 goal and 2 assists for Al Nassr FC, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 104 matches.
Goals1Assists2Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.