Superligaen · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
1 point between AC Horsens and safety
AC Horsens sit 7th on 16, with OB the first side above the line on 17. The model puts AC Horsens down 56% of the time.
What is being decided1 · FC Midtjylland lead by 5
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · FC Midtjylland are 11.5 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
FC Midtjylland are 11.5 points ahead of their xG
31 points from an expected 19.5. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points31Expected19.5xG for19.9Underperforming
Lyngby are 7.1 points short of their xG
11 points from an expected 18.1. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points11Expected18.1xG for23.0Form
FC Midtjylland have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 31 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Randers FC have lost 4 of their last 5
10th on 11, and falling.
FormL L D L LPosition10th
Games that move the table3 · Nordsjælland v FC København
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Nordsjælland v FC København
5th against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
NOR35%Draw27%FCK38%Key fixture
Randers FC v AC Horsens
10th against 7th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
RAN41%Draw24%ACH35%Key fixture
AGF v AC Horsens
8th against 7th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AGF41%Draw26%ACH33%
The people who decide it3 · Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
3 goals and 0 assists for Brøndby IF, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 77 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.5Player
Simon Colyn
2 goals and 2 assists for Lyngby, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 77 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.4Player
Runar Robinsønn Norheim
1 goal and 3 assists for Nordsjælland, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 77 matches.
Goals1Assists3Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.