Superligaen · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
FC København (21) from FC Midtjylland (18) with 14 matchweeks left. The model gives FC København 65%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · FC København are 8.1 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
FC København are 8.1 points ahead of their xG
21 points from an expected 12.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points21Expected12.9xG for12.3Underperforming
AGF are 8.1 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 12.1. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected12.1xG for13.4Form
FC København have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 21 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition1stForm
Sønderjyske have lost 4 of their last 5
12th on 2, and falling.
FormL L L L DPosition12th
Games that move the table3 · Silkeborg v AC Horsens
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Silkeborg v AC Horsens
10th against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SIL36%Draw28%ACH36%Key fixture
Brøndby IF v FC Midtjylland
5th against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BRN34%Draw26%FCM40%Key fixture
Randers FC v Viborg
7th against 4th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
RAN35%Draw29%VIB36%
The people who decide it3 · Mohamed Elyounoussi
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Mohamed Elyounoussi
2 goals and 1 assist for FC København, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 48 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.7Player
Mike Themsen
2 goals and 1 assist for Randers FC, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 48 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.4Player
Stanley Iheanacho
2 goals and 1 assist for FC Midtjylland, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 16 of 48 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.