Brasileirão Série A · 2026
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Flamengo (57) from Palmeiras (56) with 11 matchweeks left. The model gives Flamengo 75%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Athletico Paranaense are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Athletico Paranaense are 3rd in their first season up
46 points from 27 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position3rdPoints46Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Palmeiras are 16.5 points ahead of their xG
56 points from an expected 39.5. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points56Expected39.5xG for31.2Underperforming
Vasco da Gama are 13.2 points short of their xG
28 points from an expected 41.2. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points28Expected41.2xG for40.0Form
Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 57 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition1stForm
Bahia have won 4 of their last 5
4th on 46 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Mirassol v Botafogo
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Mirassol v Botafogo
15th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MIR38%Draw27%BOT35%Key fixture
Mirassol v Internacional
15th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MIR42%Draw26%INT32%Key fixture
Grêmio v Internacional
16th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GRM30%Draw28%INT42%
The people who decide it3 · Matheus Pereira
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Matheus Pereira
2 goals and 2 assists for Cruzeiro, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 267 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.7Player
Renê
3 goals and 0 assists for Vitória, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 267 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.4Player
Reinier
2 goals and 1 assist for Atlético-MG, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 267 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.