Brasileirão Série A · 2026
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
Flamengo (73) from Palmeiras (70) with 5 matchweeks left. The model gives Flamengo 86%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Corinthians and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Athletico Paranaense are 5th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Athletico Paranaense are 5th in their first season up
54 points from 33 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position5thPoints54Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Palmeiras are 17.7 points ahead of their xG
70 points from an expected 52.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points70Expected52.3xG for44.9Underperforming
Vasco da Gama are 15.0 points short of their xG
38 points from an expected 53.0. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points38Expected53.0xG for51.1Form
Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 73 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Palmeiras have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 70 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W DPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Internacional v Vitória
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Internacional v Vitória
18th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
INT49%Draw25%VIT26%Key fixture
Corinthians v Grêmio
17th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
COI52%Draw24%GRM24%Key fixture
Vasco da Gama v Internacional
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
VAS43%Draw25%INT32%
The people who decide it3 · Samuel Lino
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Samuel Lino
2 goals and 2 assists for Flamengo, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 29 of 329 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.4Player
Kaio Jorge
3 goals and 1 assist for Cruzeiro, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 29 of 329 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.3Player
José López
0 goals and 2 assists for Palmeiras, 1.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 29 of 329 matches.
Goals0Assists2Per 901.1
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.