Austrian Bundesliga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
LASK (15) from Rapid Wien (15) with 16 matchweeks left. The model gives LASK 45%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Rapid Wien are 4.1 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Rapid Wien are 4.1 points ahead of their xG
15 points from an expected 10.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points15Expected10.9xG for12.9Underperforming
Altach are 5.3 points short of their xG
3 points from an expected 8.3. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points3Expected8.3xG for7.5Form
LASK have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 15 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W LPosition1stForm
Rapid Wien have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 15 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Austria Lustenau v Grazer AK
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Austria Lustenau v Grazer AK
11th against 7th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AUT36%Draw28%GRA36%Key fixture
Grazer AK v Hartberg
7th against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GRA42%Draw28%HAR30%Key fixture
Grazer AK v Salzburg
7th against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GRA31%Draw29%SAL40%
The people who decide it3 · Marco Hoffmann
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Marco Hoffmann
3 goals and 0 assists for Hartberg, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 15 of 36 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.7Player
Marco Tilio
1 goal and 1 assist for Rapid Wien, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 15 of 36 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.5Player
Haris Tabaković
3 goals and 0 assists for Salzburg, 1.4 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.1. Over the last 15 of 36 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.