Austrian Bundesliga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
Rapid Wien (30) from Salzburg (27) with 11 matchweeks left. The model gives Rapid Wien 63%.
What is being decided1 · 4 points between WSG Tirol and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Rapid Wien are 7.0 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Rapid Wien are 7.0 points ahead of their xG
30 points from an expected 23.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points30Expected23.0xG for25.9Underperforming
Altach are 5.9 points short of their xG
10 points from an expected 15.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points10Expected15.9xG for13.3Form
Rapid Wien have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 30 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Salzburg have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 27 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW D W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Sturm Graz v Salzburg
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Sturm Graz v Salzburg
4th against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
STU33%Draw27%SAL39%Key fixture
Hartberg v Rapid Wien
5th against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
HAR31%Draw27%RAP42%Key fixture
Rapid Wien v LASK
1st against 3rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
RAP50%Draw25%LAS26%
The people who decide it3 · Yusuf Demir
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Yusuf Demir
3 goals and 0 assists for Rapid Wien, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 15 of 66 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.6Player
Jesper Lindstrøm
1 goal and 2 assists for Salzburg, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 15 of 66 matches.
Goals1Assists2Per 901.6Player
Simon Seidl
0 goals and 3 assists for Sturm Graz, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 15 of 66 matches.
Goals0Assists3Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.