Liga Portugal · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
FC Porto (18) from Benfica (16) with 28 matchweeks left. The model gives FC Porto 32%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
Rio Ave sit 16th on 4, with Nacional the first side above the line on 4. The model puts Rio Ave down 56% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left28Relegation risk56%Projection
Arouca and Estrela da Amadora are level on the European cut
Arouca hold 5th on 10; Estrela da Amadora are 6th on 10.
Arouca10Estrela da Amadora10Games left28
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Académico Viseu are 8th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Académico Viseu are 8th in their first season up
8 points from 6 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 13%.
Position8thPoints8Relegation risk13%Underperforming
Vitória de Guimarães are 8.3 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 12.3. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected12.3xG for11.5Form
FC Porto have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 18 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Benfica have won 5 of their last 5
2nd on 16 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Rio Ave v Nacional
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Rio Ave v Nacional
16th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
RIO35%Draw28%NAC37%Key fixture
FC Porto v Benfica
1st against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
FCP40%Draw28%BEN32%Key fixture
Rio Ave v Famalicão
16th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
RIO22%Draw29%FAM49%
The people who decide it3 · Ianis Stoica
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Ianis Stoica
4 goals and 1 assist for Estrela da Amadora, 1.9 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.8. Over the last 23 of 53 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 901.9Player
Vangelis Pavlidis
4 goals and 1 assist for Benfica, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 53 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 901.4Player
William Gomes
2 goals and 1 assist for FC Porto, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 53 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.