Liga Portugal · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
Level on the relegation line
Rio Ave sit 16th on 7, with Nacional the first side above the line on 7. The model puts Rio Ave down 51% of the time.
What is being decided2 · A 8-point cushion at the top
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Projection
A 8-point cushion at the top
FC Porto (30) from Benfica (22) with 24 matchweeks left. The model gives FC Porto 84%.
FC Porto30Benfica22Games left24Projection
Arouca and Académico Viseu are level on the European cut
Arouca hold 5th on 20; Académico Viseu are 6th on 20.
Arouca20Académico Viseu20Games left24
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Académico Viseu are 6th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Académico Viseu are 6th in their first season up
20 points from 10 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position6thPoints20Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Académico Viseu are 10.4 points ahead of their xG
20 points from an expected 9.6. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points20Expected9.6xG for11.3Underperforming
Vitória de Guimarães are 8.8 points short of their xG
8 points from an expected 16.8. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points8Expected16.8xG for15.1Form
FC Porto have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 30 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Benfica have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 22 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W L W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Casa Pia AC v Nacional
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Casa Pia AC v Nacional
17th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CAS32%Draw30%NAC38%Key fixture
Marítimo v Nacional
14th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MAR45%Draw29%NAC27%Key fixture
Marítimo v Rio Ave
14th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MAR47%Draw27%RIO26%
The people who decide it3 · Borja Sainz
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Borja Sainz
2 goals and 1 assist for FC Porto, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 14 of 88 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.7Player
Iván Fresneda
0 goals and 3 assists for Sporting CP, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 14 of 88 matches.
Goals0Assists3Per 901.5Player
Gabriel Veiga
1 goal and 1 assist for FC Porto, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 14 of 88 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.