League One · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 2 points in it
Huddersfield Town (28) from Stockport County (26) with 33 matchweeks left. The model gives Huddersfield Town 52%.
What is being decided1 · 2 points between Wigan and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Oxford United are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Oxford United are 3rd in their first season up
23 points from 12 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position3rdPoints23Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Oxford United are 5.0 points ahead of their xG
23 points from an expected 18.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points23Expected18.0xG for18.9Underperforming
Peterborough United are 7.3 points short of their xG
10 points from an expected 17.3. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points10Expected17.3xG for19.7Form
Huddersfield Town have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 28 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition1stForm
Luton Town have won 4 of their last 5
4th on 23 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Wimbledon v Blackpool
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Wimbledon v Blackpool
18th against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AFC35%Draw29%BLA37%Key fixture
Wigan v Barnsley
21st against 23rd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
WIG43%Draw26%BAR31%Key fixture
Blackpool v Wigan
19th against 21st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BLA46%Draw27%WIG26%
The people who decide it3 · Aaron Collins
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Aaron Collins
6 goals and 2 assists for MK Dons, 2.1 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 3.1. Over the last 35 of 155 matches.
Goals6Assists2Per 902.1Player
Luke Thomas
1 goal and 2 assists for Leicester, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 35 of 155 matches.
Goals1Assists2Per 901.5Player
Michael Smith
3 goals and 1 assist for Mansfield, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 35 of 155 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.