League One · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Sheffield Wednesday (13) from Huddersfield Town (12) with 40 matchweeks left. The model gives Sheffield Wednesday 1%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck3 · Sheffield Wednesday are 1st in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Sheffield Wednesday are 1st in their first season up
13 points from 6 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 4%.
Position1stPoints13Relegation risk4%Overperforming
Cambridge United are 5.1 points ahead of their xG
11 points from an expected 5.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points11Expected5.9xG for6.9Underperforming
Doncaster Rovers are 7.6 points short of their xG
3 points from an expected 10.6. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points3Expected10.6xG for9.8
Games that move the table3 · Blackpool v Leicester
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Blackpool v Leicester
10th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BLA46%Draw26%LEI28%Key fixture
Blackpool v Plymouth
10th against 6th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BLA30%Draw25%PLY45%Key fixture
Leicester v Peterborough
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
LEI34%Draw27%PET39%
The people who decide it3 · Aaron Collins
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Aaron Collins
3 goals and 1 assist for MK Dons, 2.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 40 of 72 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 902.1Player
Nahki Wells
3 goals and 0 assists for Luton, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 40 of 72 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.5Player
Dan Kemp
3 goals and 1 assist for Stevenage, 1.5 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.7. Over the last 40 of 72 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.