Serie A · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Lazio (28) from Inter (25) with 28 matchweeks left. The model gives Lazio 7%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Frosinone are 6th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Frosinone are 6th in their first season up
20 points from 10 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position6thPoints20Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Lazio are 11.0 points ahead of their xG
28 points from an expected 17.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points28Expected17.0xG for16.5Underperforming
Fiorentina are 7.9 points short of their xG
5 points from an expected 12.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points5Expected12.9xG for13.3Form
Lazio have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 28 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Inter have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 25 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W LPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Monza v Fiorentina
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Monza v Fiorentina
16th against 17th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MON40%Draw26%FIO34%Key fixture
Venezia v Udinese
20th against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
VEN47%Draw26%UDI27%Key fixture
Sassuolo v Genoa
15th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SAS36%Draw28%GEN36%
The people who decide it3 · Gustavo Varela
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Gustavo Varela
4 goals and 1 assist for Monza, 1.9 involvements per 90. Over the last 35 of 98 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 901.9Player
Nikola Krstović
5 goals and 2 assists for Atalanta, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 35 of 98 matches.
Goals5Assists2Per 901.8Player
Farès Ghedjemis
1 goal and 4 assists for Frosinone, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 35 of 98 matches.
Goals1Assists4Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.