Serie A · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Roma (12) from Inter (12) with 34 matchweeks left. The model gives Roma 30%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
Monza sit 18th on 1, with Parma the first side above the line on 1. The model puts Monza down 20% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left34Relegation risk20%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Milan hold 6th on 8; Frosinone are 7th on 7.
Milan8Frosinone7Games left34
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Frosinone are 7th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Frosinone are 7th in their first season up
7 points from 4 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 7%.
Position7thPoints7Relegation risk7%Overperforming
Cagliari are 4.1 points ahead of their xG
9 points from an expected 4.9. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points9Expected4.9xG for4.4Underperforming
Monza are 6.9 points short of their xG
1 points from an expected 7.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points1Expected7.9xG for7.1Form
Roma have won 4 of their last 4
1st on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W WPosition1stForm
Inter have won 4 of their last 4
2nd on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Roma v Inter
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Roma v Inter
1st against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ROM43%Draw25%INT33%Key fixture
Lecce v Bologna
12th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LEC25%Draw29%BOL46%Key fixture
Parma v Genoa
17th against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
PAR32%Draw30%GEN37%
The people who decide it3 · Donyell Malen
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Donyell Malen
3 goals and 0 assists for Roma, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 40 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 902.2Player
Franco Mastantuono
3 goals and 0 assists for Fiorentina, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 40 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 902.0Player
Martin Baturina
2 goals and 1 assist for Como, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 40 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.