League Two · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Level at the top
Barnet (12) from Bristol Rovers (12) with 40 matchweeks left. The model gives Barnet 36%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Crawley and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · York City are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
York City are 3rd in their first season up
11 points from 6 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position3rdPoints11Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Cheltenham Town are 4.7 points ahead of their xG
11 points from an expected 6.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points11Expected6.3xG for8.0Underperforming
Rotherham United are 5.1 points short of their xG
6 points from an expected 11.1. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points6Expected11.1xG for11.3Form
Bristol Rovers have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W LPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Bristol Rovers v Barnet
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Bristol Rovers v Barnet
2nd against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
BRI35%Draw25%BAR39%Key fixture
Northampton v Rotherham
17th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
NOR31%Draw29%ROT39%Key fixture
Northampton v Oldham
17th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
NOR25%Draw28%OLD47%
The people who decide it3 · Aaron Drinan
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Aaron Drinan
4 goals and 0 assists for Swindon, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 39 of 72 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 902.0Player
Andreas Weimann
2 goals and 2 assists for Cheltenham, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 39 of 72 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.6Player
Ronan Coughlan
2 goals and 1 assist for Fleetwood, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 39 of 72 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.