League Two · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
Level on the relegation line
Colchester United sit 23rd on 12, with Rotherham United the first side above the line on 12. The model puts Colchester down 3% of the time.
What is being decided1 · Salford City lead by 5
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · York City are 7th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
York City are 7th in their first season up
20 points from 14 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 7%.
Position7thPoints20Relegation risk7%Overperforming
Salford City are 10.0 points ahead of their xG
31 points from an expected 21.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points31Expected21.0xG for18.5Underperforming
Chesterfield are 8.8 points short of their xG
19 points from an expected 27.8. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points19Expected27.8xG for27.7Form
Salford City have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 31 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Bristol Rovers have lost 4 of their last 5
17th on 16, and falling.
FormL L L D LPosition17th
Games that move the table3 · Rotherham v Crawley
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Rotherham v Crawley
22nd against 24th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ROT37%Draw26%CRA37%Key fixture
Rotherham v Oldham
22nd against 21st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ROT31%Draw25%OLD44%Key fixture
Walsall v Barnet
3rd against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
WAL38%Draw23%BAR39%
The people who decide it3 · Géza Dávid Turi
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Géza Dávid Turi
2 goals and 2 assists for Grimsby, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 163 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 902.2Player
Josh Woods
4 goals and 0 assists for Accrington, 1.8 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 3.2. Over the last 30 of 163 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.8Player
Jordan Gibson
2 goals and 1 assist for Crewe, 1.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 163 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.6
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.