Liga Nacional · 2026/2027 - Apertura
Ask a questionProjection
Just 2 points in it
CD Marathón (17) from Real España (15) with 2 matchweeks left. The model gives CD Marathón 73%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Juticalpa and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Juticalpa and safety
Juticalpa sit 12th on 3, with CD Choloma the first side above the line on 4. The model puts Juticalpa down 65% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left2Relegation risk65%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Olancho FC hold 6th on 10; Atletico Independiente are 7th on 9.
Olancho FC10Atletico Independiente9Games left2
Running hot, and living on luck2 · CD Marathón have won 4 of their last 5
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Games that move the table3 · Platense FC v Juticalpa
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Platense FC v Juticalpa
10th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
PLA47%Draw24%JUT28%Key fixture
Real España v FC Motagua
2nd against 4th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
REA48%Draw27%FCM25%Key fixture
Lobos UPNFM v CD Marathón
Close on the model, and both sides still have a season to settle.
LOB22%Draw27%CDM52%
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.