Eliteserien · 2026
Ask a questionProjection
Level at the top
Viking (59) from Bodø/Glimt (59) with 5 matchweeks left. The model gives Viking 51%.
What is being decided2 · 3 points between Aalesund and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
3 points between Aalesund and safety
Aalesund sit 14th on 24, with Hamarkameratene the first side above the line on 27. The model puts Aalesund down 77% of the time.
Gap to safety3Games left5Relegation risk77%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Rosenborg hold 4th on 43; Lillestrøm are 5th on 42.
Rosenborg43Lillestrøm42Games left5
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Lillestrøm are 5th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Lillestrøm are 5th in their first season up
42 points from 25 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position5thPoints42Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Viking are 8.9 points ahead of their xG
59 points from an expected 50.1. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points59Expected50.1xG for57.3Underperforming
Start are 9.6 points short of their xG
19 points from an expected 28.6. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points19Expected28.6xG for36.7Form
Viking have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 59 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W LPosition1stForm
Rosenborg have won 4 of their last 5
4th on 43 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW D W W WPosition4th
Games that move the table3 · Molde v Viking
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Molde v Viking
3rd against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MOL37%Draw24%VIK39%Key fixture
Molde v Bodø/Glimt
3rd against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
MOL38%Draw23%BOD39%Key fixture
HamKam v Fredrikstad
13th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
HAM37%Draw28%FRE34%
The people who decide it3 · Sander Hestetun Kilen
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Sander Hestetun Kilen
4 goals and 2 assists for Molde, 2.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 200 matches.
Goals4Assists2Per 902.5Player
Kristian Hemmingsen Lonebu
6 goals and 0 assists for Molde, 2.4 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.5. Over the last 24 of 200 matches.
Goals6Assists0Per 902.4Player
Peter Christiansen
3 goals and 1 assist for Viking, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 200 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 902.2
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.