Eliteserien · 2026
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Bodø/Glimt (50) from Viking (47) with 10 matchweeks left. The model gives Bodø/Glimt 79%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Kristiansund and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Lillestrøm are 5th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Lillestrøm are 5th in their first season up
32 points from 20 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position5thPoints32Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Fredrikstad are 7.2 points ahead of their xG
27 points from an expected 19.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points27Expected19.8xG for23.8Underperforming
Start are 9.2 points short of their xG
16 points from an expected 25.2. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points16Expected25.2xG for29.2Form
Bodø/Glimt have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 50 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Molde have won 4 of their last 5
3rd on 36 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition3rd
Games that move the table3 · Sandefjord v Start
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Sandefjord v Start
13th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SAN37%Draw27%STA36%Key fixture
Kristiansund v Aalesund
14th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KRI32%Draw26%AAL42%Key fixture
Kristiansund v KFUM
14th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KRI33%Draw30%KFU37%
The people who decide it3 · Henrik Rørvik Bjørdal
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Henrik Rørvik Bjørdal
2 goals and 1 assist for Viking, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 160 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 902.0Player
Jens Petter Hauge
2 goals and 1 assist for Bodø/Glimt, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 160 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.8Player
Emil Konradsen Ceïde
2 goals and 2 assists for Rosenborg, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 21 of 160 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.