Eredivisie · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Feyenoord (25) from Ajax (24) with 23 matchweeks left. The model gives Feyenoord 33%.
What is being decided1 · 2 points between Telstar and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Cambuur are 9th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Cambuur are 9th in their first season up
15 points from 11 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 2%.
Position9thPoints15Relegation risk2%Overperforming
Fortuna Sittard are 11.7 points ahead of their xG
19 points from an expected 7.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points19Expected7.3xG for9.7Underperforming
Willem II are 5.9 points short of their xG
2 points from an expected 7.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points2Expected7.9xG for14.4Form
SC Heerenveen have won 4 of their last 5
7th on 18 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW L W W WPosition7thForm
Excelsior have lost 4 of their last 5
15th on 11, and falling.
FormD L L L LPosition15th
Games that move the table3 · ADO Den Haag v Excelsior
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
ADO Den Haag v Excelsior
17th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ADO50%Draw27%EXC23%Key fixture
FC Twente v Ajax
4th against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
FCT61%Draw23%AJA16%Key fixture
Feyenoord v Ajax
1st against 2nd — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
FEY55%Draw24%AJA21%
The people who decide it3 · Sondre Ørjasæter
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Sondre Ørjasæter
1 goal and 5 assists for FC Twente, 2.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 99 matches.
Goals1Assists5Per 902.3Player
Sven Mijnans
2 goals and 1 assist for PSV Eindhoven, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 99 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 902.0Player
Julian Brandt
2 goals and 2 assists for Ajax, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 26 of 99 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.8
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.