Eredivisie · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
PSV Eindhoven (16) from AZ Alkmaar (16) with 28 matchweeks left. The model gives PSV Eindhoven 61%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
PEC Zwolle sit 16th on 4, with Cambuur the first side above the line on 4. The model puts PEC Zwolle down 66% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left28Relegation risk66%Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Fortuna Sittard hold 7th on 10; Go Ahead Eagles are 8th on 9.
Fortuna Sittard10Go Ahead Eagles9Games left28
Running hot, and living on luck3 · Fortuna Sittard are 6.6 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Fortuna Sittard are 6.6 points ahead of their xG
10 points from an expected 3.4. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points10Expected3.4xG for5.6Form
PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 16 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 16 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W DPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
FC Twente v PSV Eindhoven
5th against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
FCT38%Draw28%PSV34%Key fixture
ADO Den Haag v Cambuur
18th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ADO35%Draw30%CAM36%Key fixture
PEC Zwolle v Cambuur
16th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
PEC35%Draw28%CAM36%
The people who decide it3 · Oscar Gloukh
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Oscar Gloukh
1 goal and 3 assists for Ajax, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 29 of 54 matches.
Goals1Assists3Per 902.0Player
Ilyès Hamache
3 goals and 1 assist for Cambuur, 2.0 involvements per 90. Over the last 29 of 54 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 902.0Player
Mohammed Ihattaren
3 goals and 1 assist for Fortuna Sittard, 1.7 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.6. Over the last 29 of 54 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.7
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.