Ligue 1 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Lille (10) from Monaco (10) with 30 matchweeks left. The model gives Lille 15%.
What is being decided2 · 1 point between Le Havre and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
1 point between Le Havre and safety
Le Havre sit 16th on 2, with Auxerre the first side above the line on 3. The model puts Le Havre down 42% of the time.
Gap to safety1Games left30Relegation risk42%Projection
2 points decides the last European place
Strasbourg hold 6th on 7; Brest are 7th on 5.
Strasbourg7Brest5Games left30
Running hot, and living on luck2 · Lille are 5.4 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Lille are 5.4 points ahead of their xG
10 points from an expected 4.6. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points10Expected4.6xG for5.3Underperforming
Toulouse are 5.6 points short of their xG
2 points from an expected 7.6. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points2Expected7.6xG for9.0
Games that move the table3 · Angers v Lorient
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Angers v Lorient
11th against 9th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ANG33%Draw29%LOR37%Key fixture
Auxerre v Le Mans
15th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AUX40%Draw26%LEM34%Key fixture
Angers v Troyes
11th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ANG42%Draw27%TRO31%
The people who decide it3 · Panos Katseris
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Panos Katseris
0 goals and 3 assists for Lorient, 1.9 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 36 matches.
Goals0Assists3Per 901.9Player
Lassine Sinayoko
4 goals and 0 assists for Paris FC, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 36 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.3Player
Dilane Bakwa
1 goal and 1 assist for Lille, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 25 of 36 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.