Ligue 1 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Paris Saint-Germain (20) from Lille (18) with 25 matchweeks left. The model gives Paris Saint-Germain 89%.
What is being decided2 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
Level on the relegation line
Troyes sit 16th on 8, with Angers the first side above the line on 8. The model puts Troyes down 39% of the time.
Gap to safetylevelGames left25Relegation risk39%Projection
Marseille and Monaco are level on the European cut
Marseille hold 6th on 15; Monaco are 7th on 15.
Marseille15Monaco15Games left25
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Lille are 5.2 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Lille are 5.2 points ahead of their xG
18 points from an expected 12.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points18Expected12.8xG for12.9Underperforming
Le Havre are 8.6 points short of their xG
2 points from an expected 10.6. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points2Expected10.6xG for14.8Form
Paris Saint-Germain have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 20 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Marseille have won 4 of their last 5
6th on 15 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition6th
Games that move the table3 · Troyes v Le Havre
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Troyes v Le Havre
16th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
TRO44%Draw27%LEH29%Key fixture
Auxerre v Toulouse
13th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
AUX29%Draw29%TFC43%Key fixture
Angers v Strasbourg
15th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ANG25%Draw26%STR49%
The people who decide it3 · Elye Wahi
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Elye Wahi
4 goals and 1 assist for Nice, 2.6 involvements per 90. Over the last 19 of 80 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 902.6Player
Achraf Hakimi
3 goals and 2 assists for PSG, 2.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 19 of 80 matches.
Goals3Assists2Per 902.4Player
Sebastian Szymański
3 goals and 0 assists for Rennes, 1.6 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.2. Over the last 19 of 80 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.6
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.