Ligue 2 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 3 points in it
Saint-Étienne (15) from Reims (12) with 28 matchweeks left. The model gives Saint-Étienne 75%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Metz are 6th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Metz are 6th in their first season up
9 points from 6 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 15%.
Position6thPoints9Relegation risk15%Overperforming
Sochaux are 4.2 points ahead of their xG
9 points from an expected 4.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points9Expected4.8xG for6.5Underperforming
Pau are 5.1 points short of their xG
5 points from an expected 10.1. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points5Expected10.1xG for9.2Form
Saint-Étienne have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 15 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W LPosition1st
Games that move the table3 · Laval v Clermont Foot
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Laval v Clermont Foot
18th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LAV37%Draw28%CLE35%Key fixture
Laval v Boulogne
18th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LAV39%Draw27%BOU34%Key fixture
Dijon v Rodez
13th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
DIJ33%Draw22%ROD45%
The people who decide it3 · Brandon Bokangu
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Brandon Bokangu
3 goals and 0 assists for Nancy, 2.1 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 54 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 902.1Player
Youssef El Kachati
2 goals and 1 assist for Reims, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 54 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.8Player
Babacar Leye
2 goals and 0 assists for Pau, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 54 matches.
Goals2Assists0Per 901.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.