Ligue 2 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Saint-Étienne (25) from Montpellier (24) with 23 matchweeks left. The model gives Saint-Étienne 61%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Dijon are 8th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Dijon are 8th in their first season up
15 points from 11 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 2%.
Position8thPoints15Relegation risk2%Overperforming
Montpellier are 9.0 points ahead of their xG
24 points from an expected 15.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points24Expected15.0xG for15.3Underperforming
Nantes are 8.9 points short of their xG
9 points from an expected 17.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points9Expected17.9xG for14.7Form
Montpellier have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 24 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition2ndForm
Pau have won 5 of their last 5
3rd on 20 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition3rd
Games that move the table3 · Sochaux v Dunkerque
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Sochaux v Dunkerque
13th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
SOC29%Draw25%DUN45%Key fixture
Reims v Saint-Étienne
5th against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
REI31%Draw28%SAI41%Key fixture
Pau v Saint-Étienne
3rd against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
PAU31%Draw26%SAI43%
The people who decide it3 · Dion Sahi
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Dion Sahi
3 goals and 0 assists for Annecy FC, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 99 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.8Player
Yaya Fofana
2 goals and 1 assist for Reims, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 99 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 901.5Player
Lacine Megnan-Pave
2 goals and 0 assists for Montpellier, 1.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 23 of 99 matches.
Goals2Assists0Per 901.2
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.