Ligue 2 · Matchweek 15
Pau
PAU
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau28%
Draw23%
Saint-Étienne48%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.96
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Saint-Étienne will have the ball; Pau will not mind.
41%Possession52%
27%Territory36%
34%From set plays11%
0.13Chance quality0.13
8.1%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.