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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 13

Reims

REI

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Reims31%
Draw28%
Saint-Étienne41%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.44

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–110.4%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–08.7%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession57%
23%Territory44%
21%From set plays30%
0.23Chance quality0.08
5.4%Directness3.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Reims, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 99 matches, not the full season.