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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 13

Reims

REI

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Reims31%
Draw28%
Saint-Étienne41%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.44

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–110.4%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–08.7%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

51%Possession57%
27%Territory44%
21%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.08
7.2%Directness3.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Reims, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.