LaLiga 2 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Castellón (27) from Almería (26) with 30 matchweeks left. The model gives Castellón 88%.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Cádiz and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Girona are 6th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Girona are 6th in their first season up
21 points from 12 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position6thPoints21Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Almería are 7.2 points ahead of their xG
26 points from an expected 18.8. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points26Expected18.8xG for17.5Underperforming
AD Ceuta FC are 9.2 points short of their xG
5 points from an expected 14.2. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points5Expected14.2xG for17.7Form
Granada have won 5 of their last 5
4th on 23 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition4thForm
Sporting Gijón have won 4 of their last 5
5th on 22 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition5th
Games that move the table3 · Celta Fortuna v Real Valladolid
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Celta Fortuna v Real Valladolid
15th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CEL35%Draw26%REA39%Key fixture
Las Palmas v Eldense
14th against 13th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LAS36%Draw27%ELD37%Key fixture
Real Sociedad B v Cádiz
18th against 19th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
REL49%Draw26%CDI25%
The people who decide it3 · Vladyslav Vanat
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Vladyslav Vanat
4 goals and 1 assist for Girona, 2.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 129 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 902.3Player
Matías Orozco
0 goals and 3 assists for Castellón, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 24 of 129 matches.
Goals0Assists3Per 901.5Player
Israel Suero
3 goals and 0 assists for Castellón, 1.2 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.0. Over the last 24 of 129 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.2
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.