LaLiga 2 · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 1 point in it
Castellón (13) from Eibar (12) with 37 matchweeks left. The model gives Castellón 84%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · Mallorca are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Mallorca are 3rd in their first season up
10 points from 5 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 1%.
Position3rdPoints10Relegation risk1%Overperforming
Eibar are 4.9 points ahead of their xG
12 points from an expected 7.1. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points12Expected7.1xG for5.3Underperforming
FC Andorra are 5.9 points short of their xG
3 points from an expected 8.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points3Expected8.9xG for10.3Form
Castellón have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 13 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW D W W WPosition1stForm
Eibar have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 12 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormL W W W WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Albacete v Córdoba
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Albacete v Córdoba
21st against 20th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ALB38%Draw24%CRD38%Key fixture
Eldense v Córdoba
16th against 20th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ELD32%Draw24%CRD44%Key fixture
Cádiz v Sporting Gijón
19th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CDI27%Draw28%SPO45%
The people who decide it3 · Adu Ares
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Adu Ares
2 goals and 1 assist for Eibar, 2.2 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 55 matches.
Goals2Assists1Per 902.2Player
Brian Cipenga
1 goal and 3 assists for Almería, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 55 matches.
Goals1Assists3Per 901.8Player
Yáser Asprilla
3 goals and 0 assists for Girona, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 30 of 55 matches.
Goals3Assists0Per 901.7
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.