LaLiga · Matchweek 15
Athletic Club
ATH
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Athletic Club23%
Draw26%
Real Madrid52%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.67
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.9%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession52%
44%Territory37%
18%From set plays5%
0.12Chance quality0.17
6.4%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletic Club, 3 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.