Serie A · Matchweek 12
Sassuolo
SAS
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo48%
Draw26%
Genoa26%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.17
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession45%
40%Territory31%
13%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.08
5.0%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 3 for Genoa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.