Serie A · Matchweek 12
Sassuolo
SAS
Genoa
GEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sassuolo36%
Draw28%
Genoa36%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.30
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession41%
37%Territory34%
17%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.07
4.0%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sassuolo, 4 for Genoa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 34 of 98 matches, not the full season.