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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Serie A · Matchweek 12

Monza

MON

Fiorentina

FIO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Monza34%
Draw26%
Fiorentina40%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.60

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–17.9%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 1–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Monza will have the ball; Fiorentina will not mind.

55%Possession45%
45%Territory49%
16%From set plays11%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.3%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monza, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.