Serie A · Matchweek 12
Monza
MON
Fiorentina
FIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza40%
Draw26%
Fiorentina34%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.44
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession45%
37%Territory40%
22%From set plays24%
0.16Chance quality0.07
4.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Monza, 3 for Fiorentina. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Fiorentina
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.