Serie B · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
This one is going the distance
Mantova (10) from Palermo (10) with 34 matchweeks left. The model gives Mantova 7%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck3 · Ascoli are 6th in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Ascoli are 6th in their first season up
7 points from 4 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 15%.
Position6thPoints7Relegation risk15%Overperforming
Mantova are 4.8 points ahead of their xG
10 points from an expected 5.2. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points10Expected5.2xG for4.3Underperforming
Hellas Verona are 5.3 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 9.3. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected9.3xG for9.3
Games that move the table3 · Cremonese v Juve Stabia
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Cremonese v Juve Stabia
16th against 18th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CRE34%Draw28%JUV38%Key fixture
Cremonese v Virtus Entella
16th against 14th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
CRE34%Draw28%VIR39%Key fixture
LR Vicenza v Pisa
12th against 9th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LRV40%Draw26%PIS34%
The people who decide it3 · Federico Bonazzoli
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Federico Bonazzoli
3 goals and 1 assist for Cremonese, 1.8 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 40 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.8Player
Cristian Shpendi
4 goals and 0 assists for Cesena, 1.4 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.2. Over the last 27 of 40 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.4Player
Davide Lamesta
1 goal and 1 assist for Benevento, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 40 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.