Serie B · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
1 point between Juve Stabia and safety
Juve Stabia sit 16th on 9, with Carrarese the first side above the line on 10. The model puts Juve Stabia down 14% of the time.
What is being decided1 · Palermo lead by 6
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Ascoli are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Ascoli are 3rd in their first season up
19 points from 10 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 0%.
Position3rdPoints19Relegation risk0%Overperforming
Palermo are 9.4 points ahead of their xG
26 points from an expected 16.6. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points26Expected16.6xG for21.1Underperforming
Sampdoria are 6.0 points short of their xG
8 points from an expected 14.0. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points8Expected14.0xG for13.9Form
Palermo have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 26 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W D WPosition1st
Games that move the table3 · Arezzo v Padova
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Arezzo v Padova
13th against 10th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ARE34%Draw29%PAD37%Key fixture
LR Vicenza v Carrarese
17th against 15th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
LRV32%Draw26%CAR42%Key fixture
Ascoli v Palermo
3rd against 1st — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
ASC37%Draw25%PAL38%
The people who decide it3 · Andrea Belotti
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Andrea Belotti
4 goals and 0 assists for Modena, 1.7 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.3. Over the last 37 of 100 matches.
Goals4Assists0Per 901.7Player
Amin Sarr
1 goal and 3 assists for Hellas Verona, 1.5 involvements per 90. Over the last 37 of 100 matches.
Goals1Assists3Per 901.5Player
Dominic Vavassori
3 goals and 1 assist for Palermo, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 37 of 100 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.4
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.