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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14

Casa Pia AC

CAS

Nacional

NAC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Casa Pia AC32%
Draw30%
Nacional38%

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.21

Over 2.5

40%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.3%
  • 0–112.4%
  • 0–011.5%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession34%
41%Territory27%
24%From set plays59%
0.07Chance quality0.06
4.5%Directness7.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Casa Pia AC, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.