Liga Portugal · Matchweek 14
Marítimo
MAR
Rio Ave
RIO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marítimo47%
Draw27%
Rio Ave26%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.08
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marítimo will have the ball; Rio Ave will not mind.
50%Possession39%
28%Territory29%
67%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.08
7.0%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marítimo, 3 for Rio Ave. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.