Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12
Marítimo
MAR
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marítimo45%
Draw29%
Nacional27%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.04
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession34%
31%Territory27%
56%From set plays59%
0.09Chance quality0.06
6.2%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Marítimo, 2 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Marítimo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 88 matches, not the full season.