Liga Portugal · Matchweek 12
Marítimo
MAR
Nacional
NAC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marítimo41%
Draw27%
Nacional32%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.27
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marítimo get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession47%
28%Territory29%
67%From set plays23%
0.08Chance quality0.10
7.0%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marítimo, 3 for Nacional. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 53 matches, not the full season.