Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Auxerre
AUX
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre32%
Draw27%
Toulouse40%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.46
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toulouse will have the ball; Auxerre will not mind.
42%Possession54%
43%Territory43%
25%From set plays20%
0.11Chance quality0.15
6.2%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.