Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Auxerre
AUX
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre29%
Draw29%
Toulouse43%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.38
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession55%
42%Territory39%
16%From set plays4%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.