Ligue 1 · Matchweek 11
Troyes
TRO
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes44%
Draw27%
Le Havre29%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.23
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession43%
41%Territory38%
35%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.13
8.3%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.