Eredivisie · Matchweek 12
FC Twente
FCT
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Twente46%
Draw28%
Ajax26%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.04
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession62%
53%Territory59%
20%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.7%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for FC Twente, 4 for Ajax.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.