Eredivisie · Matchweek 15
ADO Den Haag
ADO
Excelsior
EXC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
ADO Den Haag27%
Draw30%
Excelsior43%
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.28
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–010.1%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession43%
36%Territory40%
22%From set plays30%
0.04Chance quality0.10
6.6%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for ADO Den Haag, 4 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.