Eredivisie · Matchweek 14
Feyenoord
FEY
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Feyenoord51%
Draw26%
Ajax23%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.04
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession62%
56%Territory59%
31%From set plays20%
0.11Chance quality0.13
3.4%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Feyenoord, 4 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.