Eredivisie · Matchweek 14
Feyenoord
FEY
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Feyenoord55%
Draw24%
Ajax21%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.04
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.1%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
44%Territory39%
22%From set plays29%
0.16Chance quality0.13
5.7%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Feyenoord, 3 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.