2. Bundesliga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionProjection
Just 2 points in it
Hertha BSC (15) from 1. FC Nürnberg (13) with 29 matchweeks left. The model gives Hertha BSC 49%.
What is being decided1 · Level on the relegation line
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck5 · FC Heidenheim are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
FC Heidenheim are 3rd in their first season up
12 points from 5 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 2%.
Position3rdPoints12Relegation risk2%Overperforming
Hertha BSC are 6.6 points ahead of their xG
15 points from an expected 8.4. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points15Expected8.4xG for10.0Underperforming
Hannover 96 are 4.0 points short of their xG
4 points from an expected 8.0. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points4Expected8.0xG for10.2Form
Hertha BSC have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 15 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
1. FC Nürnberg have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 13 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W D WPosition2nd
Games that move the table3 · Karlsruher SC v Darmstadt
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Karlsruher SC v Darmstadt
12th against 16th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KAR37%Draw27%DAR36%Key fixture
VfL Osnabrück v Greuther Fürth
10th against 11th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
VFL39%Draw27%GRE34%Key fixture
St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC
9th against 12th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
STP44%Draw27%KAR29%
The people who decide it3 · Josip Brekalo
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Josip Brekalo
4 goals and 1 assist for Hertha BSC, 1.7 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.8. Over the last 27 of 45 matches.
Goals4Assists1Per 901.7Player
Adam Markhiev
3 goals and 1 assist for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.3 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 2.8. Over the last 27 of 45 matches.
Goals3Assists1Per 901.3Player
Justin Butler
1 goal and 1 assist for Energie Cottbus, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 45 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.