2. Bundesliga · 2026/2027
Ask a questionSurvival
1 point between Darmstadt and safety
Darmstadt sit 16th on 9, with Eintracht Braunschweig the first side above the line on 10. The model puts Darmstadt down 32% of the time.
What is being decided1 · Hertha BSC lead by 7
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Wolfsburg are 3rd in their first season up
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Breakout
Wolfsburg are 3rd in their first season up
19 points from 10 — promoted sides are not supposed to do this, and the model has already cut their relegation risk to 2%.
Position3rdPoints19Relegation risk2%Overperforming
1. FC Nürnberg are 7.7 points ahead of their xG
21 points from an expected 13.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points21Expected13.3xG for17.6Underperforming
Holstein Kiel are 4.9 points short of their xG
8 points from an expected 12.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points8Expected12.9xG for15.1Form
Hertha BSC have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 28 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W D W WPosition1st
Games that move the table3 · Karlsruher SC v Holstein Kiel
The fixtures the model expects to change something.
Key fixture
Karlsruher SC v Holstein Kiel
13th against 17th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KAR35%Draw28%HOL37%Key fixture
Karlsruher SC v VfL Osnabrück
13th against 10th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
KAR35%Draw27%VFL37%Key fixture
Greuther Fürth v Arminia Bielefeld
9th against 7th — the sort of game that moves the gap by two results, not one.
GRE30%Draw29%ARM41%
The people who decide it3 · Marvin Wanitzek
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Marvin Wanitzek
2 goals and 3 assists for Karlsruher SC, 1.7 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 90 matches.
Goals2Assists3Per 901.7Player
Fabian Reese
2 goals and 2 assists for Wolfsburg, 1.4 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 90 matches.
Goals2Assists2Per 901.4Player
Jannik Rochelt
1 goal and 1 assist for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.3 involvements per 90. Over the last 27 of 90 matches.
Goals1Assists1Per 901.3
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.