2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Karlsruher SC
KAR
VfL Osnabrück
VFL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Karlsruher SC35%
Draw27%
VfL Osnabrück37%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.42
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession42%
40%Territory34%
32%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.15
6.5%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Karlsruher SC, 3 for VfL Osnabrück. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.