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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Karlsruher SC

KAR

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Karlsruher SC38%
Draw27%
Holstein Kiel35%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.38

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.0%
  • 108.9%
  • 018.5%
  • 218.5%
  • 128.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession53%
40%Territory40%
43%From set plays35%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Karlsruher SC, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.