2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
Karlsruher SC
KAR
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Karlsruher SC35%
Draw28%
Holstein Kiel37%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.31
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession45%
40%Territory28%
32%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.11
6.5%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Karlsruher SC, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.