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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Greuther Fürth30%
Draw29%
Arminia Bielefeld41%

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.34

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–111.8%
  • 0–09.8%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession43%
27%Territory34%
18%From set plays33%
0.06Chance quality0.07
6.7%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Greuther Fürth, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.