Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Union Berlin
UNI
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union Berlin42%
Draw31%
Hamburger SV26%
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.91
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.8%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
36%Possession40%
33%Territory32%
48%From set plays46%
0.13Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.