Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Union Berlin
UNI
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Union Berlin48%
Draw28%
Hamburger SV24%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.00
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession45%
34%Territory33%
70%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Union Berlin, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.