Serie B · Matchweek 12
Arezzo
ARE
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arezzo34%
Draw29%
Padova37%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.30
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession39%
34%Territory34%
31%From set plays18%
0.12Chance quality0.11
7.4%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Arezzo, 4 for Padova.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.