Serie B · Matchweek 12
Arezzo
ARE
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arezzo39%
Draw27%
Padova35%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.38
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession40%
33%Territory39%
29%From set plays37%
0.07Chance quality0.11
9.6%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arezzo, 3 for Padova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.