Serie B · Matchweek 11
Ascoli
ASC
Palermo
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ascoli29%
Draw26%
Palermo45%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.61
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli will have the ball; Palermo will not mind.
64%Possession52%
49%Territory37%
23%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.10
3.8%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ascoli, 3 for Palermo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.