Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 14
Kilmarnock
KIL
Aberdeen
ABE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kilmarnock41%
Draw27%
Aberdeen32%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.32
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession41%
39%Territory32%
33%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.07
5.3%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for Aberdeen.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kilmarnock
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.