Skip to content

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 14

Kilmarnock

KIL

Aberdeen

ABE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kilmarnock41%
Draw27%
Aberdeen32%

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.32

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.9%
  • 109.3%
  • 218.8%
  • 018.0%
  • 127.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

46%Possession41%
39%Territory32%
33%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.07
5.3%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kilmarnock, 4 for Aberdeen.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.