Liga MX · Matchweek 16
León
LEN
Chivas
CHI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
León39%
Draw29%
Chivas31%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.14
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession58%
40%Territory37%
12%From set plays4%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for León, 3 for Chivas. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.