Liga MX · Matchweek 17
Chivas
CHI
Cruz Azul
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chivas42%
Draw27%
Cruz Azul30%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.22
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cruz Azul get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
58%Possession53%
37%Territory42%
4%From set plays28%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.0%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chivas, 3 for Cruz Azul. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.