Liga MX · Matchweek 17
Chivas
CHI
Cruz Azul
CRU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chivas40%
Draw28%
Cruz Azul32%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.27
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession53%
48%Territory38%
21%From set plays15%
0.09Chance quality0.14
6.1%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Chivas, 4 for Cruz Azul.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Chivas
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 28 of 134 matches, not the full season.