Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 16
Korona Kielce
KOR
Cracovia
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Korona Kielce41%
Draw28%
Cracovia30%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.15
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession50%
42%Territory43%
32%From set plays41%
0.11Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Korona Kielce, 3 for Cracovia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.