Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 15
GKS Katowice
GKS
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
GKS Katowice27%
Draw25%
Lech Poznań48%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.73
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession53%
45%Territory42%
16%From set plays18%
0.10Chance quality0.11
3.5%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for GKS Katowice, 4 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.