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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 11

Union St.Gilloise

UNI

Genk

GEK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Union St.Gilloise50%
Draw25%
Genk24%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.15

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–08.1%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession53%
41%Territory44%
41%From set plays27%
0.14Chance quality0.12
5.1%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Union St.Gilloise, 3 for Genk. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.