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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Sturm Graz

STU

Salzburg

SAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz33%
Draw26%
Salzburg41%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.56

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

40%Possession63%
34%Territory44%
29%From set plays4%
0.15Chance quality0.13
8.1%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.