Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
Sturm Graz
STU
Salzburg
SAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sturm Graz33%
Draw27%
Salzburg39%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.46
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession60%
36%Territory36%
25%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.17
7.0%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.