Premier League · 2015/2016
Ask a questionSettled
Leicester City are champions
Leicester City finish on 81 points, 10 clear of Arsenal.
What is being decided2 · 2 points between Newcastle United and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Survival
2 points between Newcastle United and safety
Newcastle United sit 18th on 37, with Sunderland the first side above the line on 39.
Gap to safety2Games left0Projection
1 point decides the last European place
Southampton hold 6th on 63; West Ham United are 7th on 62.
Southampton63West Ham United62Games left0
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Leicester City are 16.7 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Leicester City are 16.7 points ahead of their xG
81 points from an expected 64.3. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points81Expected64.3xG for66.3Underperforming
Aston Villa are 15.5 points short of their xG
17 points from an expected 32.5. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points17Expected32.5xG for29.6Form
Southampton have won 4 of their last 5
6th on 63 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormD W W W WPosition6thForm
AFC Bournemouth have lost 4 of their last 5
16th on 42, and falling.
FormL L L D LPosition16th
The people who decide it4 · Sergio Agüero
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Sergio Agüero
24 goals and 2 assists for Manchester City, 1.0 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 6.3.
Goals24Assists2Per 901.0Player
Jamie Vardy
24 goals and 5 assists for Leicester City, 0.8 involvements per 90.
Goals24Assists5Per 900.8Player
Riyad Mahrez
17 goals and 10 assists for Leicester City, 0.8 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 4.8.
Goals17Assists10Per 900.8Dugout
Rémi Garde is 15.5 points short of the performances
Aston Villa sit 20th on 17, where the underlying numbers argue for 32.5. That gap usually closes; it is not a prediction about anyone's job.
Points17Expected32.5
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.