Serie A · 2015/2016
Ask a questionSettled
Juventus are champions
Juventus finish on 91 points, 9 clear of Napoli.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Carpi and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · AS Roma are 14.4 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
AS Roma are 14.4 points ahead of their xG
80 points from an expected 65.6. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points80Expected65.6xG for62.0Underperforming
Hellas Verona are 14.7 points short of their xG
28 points from an expected 42.7. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points28Expected42.7xG for42.9Form
Juventus have won 4 of their last 5
1st on 91 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W L WPosition1stForm
Napoli have won 4 of their last 5
2nd on 82 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW L W W WPosition2nd
The people who decide it4 · Gonzalo Higuaín
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Gonzalo Higuaín
36 goals and 2 assists for Napoli, 1.1 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 11.0.
Goals36Assists2Per 901.1Player
Paulo Dybala
19 goals and 9 assists for Juventus, 1.0 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 4.2.
Goals19Assists9Per 901.0Player
Josip Iličić
13 goals and 5 assists for Fiorentina, 0.8 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 3.6.
Goals13Assists5Per 900.8Dugout
Andrea Mandorlini is 14.7 points short of the performances
Hellas Verona sit 20th on 28, where the underlying numbers argue for 42.7. That gap usually closes; it is not a prediction about anyone's job.
Points28Expected42.7
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.